Work package 3 - documents:
The process of traffic modelling plays an important role in the process of strategic planning of transport infrastructure development and investment allocation in the transport sector. The methodological approach in developing a traffic model largely depends on the purpose and aims for which it is developed. At present, most traffic models are focused on passenger transportation demand analysis. The main reason for this approach is the excessive volume of passenger vehicles in agglomerations tha needs to be addressed in order to improve traffic flow and population mobility. Freight transport contributes signifi cantly to these transport problems through increased load on transport infrastructure and the resulting negative impacts such as congestions deterioration of road surface, environmental standards and lower quality of life of the affected population.
In this news, we would like to present you descriptions of the documents from Work Package 3. Not to spoil the suprise, all the documents soon will be uploaded to the Project Website, so stay tuned!
TRITIA transport model zero scenario:
The originally proposed process of developing a four-stage model with a given structure of commodity groups for freight transport was modified to a model quantifying the potential for shifting part of the traffic load from road freight transport to other mode due to the absence of relevant data inputs characterizing transport demand. The lack of input data was mainly due to the minimum response from shippers and carrier in the statistical survey of goods flows, as well as incomplete information in relevan specification and detail that would sufficiently characterize the routing and volume of freight carried by railway transport.
3) TRITIA transport model alternative scenarios,
The zero scenario of the traffic model potential for the use of the transport infrastructure in the TRANS TRITIA region by the year 2030 considered the natural development of the assessed area, which means that an assumption was made that the planned projects
defi ned in the strategic documents will be implemented. The macroeconomic theory suggests that the natural development of the territory
is assessed on the basis of the growth of the country’s GDP (region), so it was necessar to estimate GDP development in the TRANS TRITIA model by 2030. Since the economic development estimate for the 10-year period is infl uenced by a number of factors that ar very difficult to predict, an optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenario was considered The optimistic scenario was based on the assumption that the economy’s growth will be higher than estimated in the underlying realistic assumptions. The pessimistic scenario considered the possibility of a slowdown in economic development and the realisti scenario was estimated to be the most likely development by the year 2030.